Scotland’s elite struggle on European stage

It’s been a while since a Scottish soccer club went the distance in a European competition. Their most recent ‘success’ was when Rangers made it to the 2021-22 Europa League final, where they lost narrowly on penalties to Eintracht Frankfurt.

It was the tenth time a Scottish team had made it to a European final and the seventh time one had fallen at the final hurdle. 

famously beating Real Madrid in Gothenburg

On a brighter note, Scottish teams have lifted European trophies three times. The first and greatest was in 1966-67, when Celtic’s ‘Lisbon Lions’ beat Inter Milan in the European Cup final. Rangers were next when, in 1971-72, they won the now-defunct European Cup Winners Cup by beating Dynamo Moscow. Then, in 1982-83, Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen won the same competition by famously beating Real Madrid in Gothenburg.  

This season, five Scottish teams made it to the early stages of European competition. Unfortunately, two have already had their respective tournaments ‘downgraded’ after failing to progress from the qualifying rounds, while St Mirren has been knocked out.

Rangers exits the Champions League

On Tuesday night, Rangers exited the Champions League stage left after failing to overcome Ukraine’s Dynamo Kyiv over two legs in the third qualifying round. The team appeared well placed after drawing 1-1 in the first leg (played in Lublin, Poland) but amid controversial circumstances was beaten 2-0 in the second leg, played at Hampden Park.

The Gers now drop into the Europa League – they go straight into the league phase of that tournament – where they join Hearts, who awaits news of their Europa League playoff opponents, with those two ties taking place on August 22 and 29.

unable to get past Cercle Brugge

Also ‘downgraded’ after a disappointing qualifying campaign is Kilmarnock. Killie initially qualified for the qualifying phase of the Europa League, thanks to their fourth-place finish in last season’s Premiership but were unable to get past Cercle Brugge, who beat the team 2-1 on aggregate.

Unfortunately for Kilmarnock, there was no automatic route into the UEFA Conference League league phase but a 1-0 away win last night over Troms? – they drew the home leg 2-2 – has given them a chance of making it to the league stage. They now face FC Copenhagen over two legs for that place in the competition proper.

The fifth Scottish team to have had the opportunity to play in Europe this season was St Mirren, who entered the UEFA Conference League in the third qualifying round. A fifth-place finish in last season’s Scottish Premiership earned them the opportunity but last night’s 3-1 away defeat by Norway’s SK Brann sees them exit the tournament after the first leg in Paisley was drawn 1-1. ?

Gulf in quality between Scottish Premiership and Europe’s elite

All of this adds up to a disappointing return for a country that regularly produces quality soccer players and has produced two of the biggest and best-supported clubs in Europe.

But, as ever, the gulf in quality between the Scottish Premiership and other European domestic leagues – particularly the so-called ‘big five’ – makes it difficult for Scottish teams to compete consistently on the European stage.

The sizeable gap in quality can, arguably, be closed in a one-off game but over two legs that task becomes a lot more difficult. It becomes an even greater task when they have a group stage to encounter or, as is the case this season, a new league phase.

This means that for Scottish teams to progress to the knockout phase of the Champions and Europa Leagues, they will need to play eight games (out of a single league of 36 teams), compared to the six in the previous format. For the UEFA Conference League, they still play six but the qualifying stages are greater in number.

All of the above makes it a massive task for any of them to go deep in each of the three tournaments while also shining a light on just how well Rangers performed in making it to the 2021-22 final.

Celtic Park under lights…

None of which, of course, means Scottish teams won’t be straining every sinew to buck this current trend. There’s also no doubt that Celtic Park and Ibrox are formidable venues for opponents when the big European nights come along under the lights – the same on a smaller scale at Hearts, Kilmarnock, and St Mirren. But it all comes back to quality and how many of their European opponents are better prepared due to the technical level of their domestic soccer.   

It doesn’t end there. The implications of Rangers missing out on this season’s Champions League league phase go way beyond the ￡40m ($51.6m) cash bonanza they fail to collect, which so badly hinders their ability to close the gap between themselves and Celtic.

Rangers’ failure to make it beyond the Champions League qualifying stages also negatively affects their, and Scottish football’s, UEFA coefficient – the number by which future European places are allocated. This is based on a country’s rolling five-year record in European club competition.

lack of progress over the last three seasons has seen them slip to 16th

In recent seasons, Scotland’s position in the coefficient ‘table’ had been healthy, helped in no small part by Rangers making it to the 2022 final, but an overall lack of progress over the last three seasons has seen them slip to 16th. That means, as things stand, they have lost the right to a guaranteed slot in the Champions League league stage for 2025-26.        

Hoops lead the Scottish charge

Mercifully for the Scots, because Celtic has qualified for this season’s league stage they will automatically collect some coefficient points throughout this campaign – even for finishing 36th – along with additional points for wins and draws.

But what realistic chance is there of Celtic, Rangers, Hearts, and Kilmarnock picking up some vital wins and draws, and, better still, progressing to the next stage of their respective tournaments?

Well, for the Hoops to win the Champions League they, unsurprisingly, are pitched at a gargantuan +25000 – best ignored for obvious reasons – but to progress to the round of 16 – a tough but not impossible task – they are listed at a much more realistic +1200.

For Rangers, for whom the 2024-25 Europa League is now home, the odds suggest progression is more of a possibility, with +700 being the best on offer for them to make it to the round of 16.      

Hearts still have a playoff second leg to negotiate before they can contemplate the league phase of the Europa League, but at +1200 to progress beyond the league phase, they are well worth a second look.

Finally, Kilmarnock, even though they made it past Troms?, are still not fancied to make it beyond the league phase if indeed they get there in the first place. But at +2500 to do so, some punters may consider them well worth a modest wager.